- The government shutdown continues through its second week, with no clear end in sight, while trade tensions between the U.S. and China have suddenly heated up.
- Absent official data, the market is turning to imperfect private-sector alternatives, which suggest the labor market continued to cool in September.
- We don’t see any developments this week that are likely to cause a big shift in the perception of the economy or the outlook, and so we are still penciling in two more quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end.
Happy Anniversary Bull Market
Sunday, October 12 marked the third anniversary of this bull market. Three years ago, the S&P 500 closed at 3,577 as investors feared inflation would become entrenched after wholesale prices unexpectedly accelerated. After a sharp sell-off that morning, stocks rallied and closed nicely higher that day. A rally on bad