Last week, we revised our economic and market forecasts as the war against the COVID-19 pandemic wages on. We are likely in recession now, though we won’t know that for sure until more timely data is released. What is clear, however, is stocks have priced in a recession. We offer…

This week, we look at stock valuations to try to gauge the potential opportunity for stocks. Amid the dizzying volatility and news cycle that investors have had to deal with lately, it can be difficult for many investors to take a step back and see beyond the daily headlines. We…

While technically not a bear market, it sure felt like one. From its September 20 high through Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 Index fell 19.8%, including a more than 7% one-week (December 14–21) decline unmatched since the 2008–09 financial crisis. Should the S&P 500 end the month where it closed…

We view last week’s market decline as a retest of the October–November lows. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.6% last week, leaving the index in line with the low of the autumn correction and 10% off the September highs. Losses were driven primarily by three issues: the risk that U.S.-China…

It was a great week for the stock market. The S&P 500 Index rallied 4.9% last week, leaving the index less than 6% from its record high, on September 20, 2018 (excluding today’s gains). Gains were driven by increasing optimism (now proven to be warranted) for progress on U.S.-China trade…

Corporate America produced another outstanding earnings season. We expected another quarter of strong earnings growth, and corporate America delivered even more than we anticipated. Third quarter numbers were excellent, even if the boost from the new tax law is excluded, as has been the case throughout this year. Revenue and…

Oil has garnered a lot of attention from market watchers in recent weeks after entering a bear market and posting a record 12-day losing streak from October 29 through November 13 that left the commodity 27% off its recent high. It has been a frustrating year for energy investors because…

In last week’s midterm election, Republicans held onto the Senate and the Democrats claimed control of the House, bringing potential gridlock to Congress. This week we discuss some investment implications, including highlighting the positive seasonal tailwinds now in place for stocks. We also discuss potential winners and losers at the…

“It is always darkest just before the day dawneth.” Thomas Fuller | English theologian and historian The quote above is better known today as “It is always the darkest just before dawn.” Well, October was one of the worst months we’ve seen in years for stocks, but we see a…

It was another tough week for stocks. The S&P 500 Index was down just shy of 4% last week, briefly dipping intraday into correction territory (more than 10% off the all-time high) and putting October on track to be the weakest month for stocks since the financial crisis. Concern about…