Playbook for a Fed Pivot

Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path to a Fed pivot could be volatile for stocks due to elevated inflation and interest rate risk. […]

Weekly Bottom Line

U.S. housing data continue to slide in October, with housing starts down 4.1% m/m to 1.4 million units, while existing home sales fell 5.9% m/m to 4.3 million. Retail sales surprised to the upside in October, rising by 1.3% m/m. Gains were relatively broad based and suggest the U.S. consumer remains on a firm footing. […]