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We started 2025 on a high note, although we acknowledged that “no market environment is ever permanent, and that change is always potentially around the corner.” Well change did come, and with it, volatility, perhaps in part because we assumed President Trump’s policies would simply mirror those of his prior term. The impact of policy direction has been central to market direction this year. Uncertainty around trade policy dominated the stock market’s path in the first half of the year and will continue to play a large role in the second half. In the second half of the year, LPL Research expects to see slower economic growth, a weakening job
market, and a slight uptick in inflation as the delayed effects of trade policy begin to take their toll. This will make things more challenging for the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose job is to keep inflation in check and maintain maximum employment. With a full plate to balance, the federal funds rate (which affects interest rates) will likely remain higher for longer.
View the complete guide 2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations, featuring forecasts for stocks, bonds, and the economy.
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Released in January each year, the yearly outlook seminar and report provides an in-depth and informative analysis of recent market activities and market performance projections for the upcoming year.
Each July, we release our Outlook seminar and report where we take a look back at the investment landscape from the beginning of the year and give our market performance projections for the remainder of the year.
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This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All index data from FactSet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, ACT Advisors makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.