Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.

Despite the sharp rise in oil prices and interest rates in March, our expectation is that the upcoming earnings season will be solid. While companies with business models sensitive to oil and rates may strike a more cautious tone in their outlooks, we expect to again be impressed by the resilience of corporate America, bolstered by our energy independence.

Our confidence in the earnings outlook for 2026 has not wavered, and future earnings are available to investors at a discounted price following the stock market pullback. While today may not mark the stock market low, and our technical analysis work points to heightened risk of some additional near-term downside, our belief that 2026 will be a good year for stocks on the back of solid economic growth and strong earnings has not changed. Once a path to ending the conflict becomes clear and oil and interest rates come back down, stocks should get a nice jolt to the upside as earnings recapture investor attention.

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