Market forecasts can be interesting. They can also become a distraction when every new headline is treated as a reason to change course.
In our 2026 Mid-Year Outlook replay, the ACT team discusses the forces we were evaluating in stocks, bonds, interest rates, and inflation. More important, we explain how those views fit into the work that actually drives a client’s financial life: knowing when money will be needed, understanding the tax picture, coordinating the estate plan, and making portfolio changes for a reason.
Five useful ideas from the replay
1. A forecast belongs in the conversation. It should not run the portfolio.
The team does offer a market outlook, including its expectations for stocks, bonds, and rates. But the point is not to hand clients a market prediction and call that a plan. In the replay, Doug English explains why the timing and purpose of a client’s spending, along with tax and estate considerations, are more consequential than a confident market call. That is the context that determines where money needs to be and how much market risk makes sense.
2. AI spending is supporting earnings—and changing the questions investors need to ask.
The presentation looks beyond the headline that “AI is driving markets.” ACT discusses the scale of hyperscaler investment, the earnings growth supporting parts of the market, and the shift from rewarding the promise of AI to asking companies to demonstrate the earnings it can produce. The team also notes the uncertainty: some reported gains reflect balance-sheet marks, and the AI and chip sectors can still experience sharp pullbacks.
3. Breadth matters more than a one-stock-story.
The team’s outlook points to strength extending beyond a narrow group of mega-cap technology companies, with improving participation in mid- and small-cap stocks. That distinction matters because a market supported by broader earnings and broader participation is a different proposition than a story built only on enthusiasm for a few names.
4. Bonds still have a job when rates stay higher for longer.
The replay does not present bonds as the exciting part of a portfolio. It explains their defensive role when stocks struggle, while addressing why interest-rate expectations and the growing debt issuance tied to AI infrastructure were changing the bond-market backdrop. ACT also reviews the portfolio adjustments made to reduce interest-rate sensitivity in the relevant allocation.
5. Tax planning works best when it is connected to the broader plan.
The team explains how reviewing a prior-year tax return can help identify planning considerations in the context of retirement income, investment accounts, Social Security, required distributions, cash flow, and other parts of the financial plan. The goal is to identify issues worth discussing with a client’s CPA or other tax professional rather than treating taxes as a once-a-year exercise.
Why the full replay is worth your time
The replay gives the market discussion its proper context: a view of conditions, a set of reasons behind ACT’s thinking, and a clear reminder that the right response depends on your own plan. It also covers ACT’s portfolio framework and the practical ways investment, tax, and planning work connect.
Watch the Mid-Year Outlook replay
If you would like to discuss what these themes mean for your own plan, please contact your ACT Advisors team.
Disclosures
Advisory services offered through ACT Advisors®, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Additional information about ACT Advisors is available in our ADV Investment Adviser Brochure, Form CRS, and Privacy Notice, and at adviserinfo.sec.gov.
This material is for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to provide individualized investment, tax, legal, insurance, or financial planning advice. The information should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or to pursue any specific investment strategy. You should consult your financial advisor, tax professional, attorney, or other qualified professional regarding your individual circumstances.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful or that any investment will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any market or economic forecasts are subject to change and may not develop as predicted. Information is believed to be from reliable sources, but ACT Advisors makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Data and views are provided as of the date of the replay and are subject to change without notice.
ACT Advisors provides financial planning and investment advisory services. ACT Advisors does not provide legal advice, tax return preparation, or insurance sales. Any discussion of tax, legal, estate, or insurance topics is general and should be reviewed with the client’s attorney, CPA, insurance professional, or other qualified professional.
Strategies such as direct indexing, tax-loss harvesting, tactical allocation, stock or bond rotation, and other portfolio strategies involve risks and may not be appropriate for all investors. Tax outcomes depend on individual circumstances and may change based on tax law, market conditions, account type, holding period, and other factors. Any examples are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only unless specifically identified otherwise.
