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Friday’s slightly hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) report lifted the bond market’s odds of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this week to near 90%. The positive reactions from stocks and bonds were interesting, suggesting that perhaps market participants have been more worried about rate hikes than they
U.S. Treasury yields approached their post-pandemic high as oil prices briefly surpassed $100/barrel. August producer and consumer inflation picked up on the back of higher energy prices, while core inflation pressures also firmed. Markets raised the implied probability of a rate hike to roughly 90% ahead of next week’s Federal
Market forecasts can be interesting. They can also become a distraction when every new headline is treated as a reason to change course. In our 2026 Mid-Year Outlook replay, the ACT team discusses the forces we were evaluating in stocks, bonds, interest rates, and inflation. More important, we explain how